Emotional Forecasting

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You’re hot (if you’re in the UK). I deal with it using an ice cream cone.

Big idea 🍉

As teachers and leaders, we're prone to the planning fallacy: we underestimate how long everything will take. It’s a kind of prediction error, and it’s not the only one we’re subject to.

Another is emotional forecasting. We're systematically bad at predicting how we'll feel about a future opportunity.

Offered a conference to go to, a fancy lesson to plan, a twilight to lead, or an initiative to implement... two months out, we say yes. But when the day arrives, we can often find ourselves regretting our decision.

Why are we so bad at predicting how we’ll feel in the future? Partly because we picture the future as an idealised present: we have more energy, a clearer calendar, fewer fires to fight. Partly because the big benefit of saying yes is easy to see, while all the small costs remain hidden. And partly because future-time feels abundant and cheap, where present-time feels scarce and precious. A distant yes can almost feel free.

This is how the conscientious among us end up overcommitted and resentful. It’s not weak boundaries, just a forecasting bug.

And all this costs us twice. The thing we agreed to gets done half-heartedly, or even resentfully. And the time it consumes was never spare: it was owed to the lesson prep, the assessment, the time we'd have given to relationships (or ourselves).

So what can we do? The first step is to become more aware: notice when you find yourself prey to poor emotional forecasting. Next, it’s about building yourself a pre-check habit. Before agreeing to anything in the future, ask yourself: if this was happening tomorrow, would I still say yes?

This simple question strips away our illusions and forces us to make a better decision. Make this a habit, and I promise: your future self will thank you.

🎓 For more, check out this paper on personality & future forecasting.

Summary

• Emotional forecasting is a prediction error: we misjudge future commitments, leaving ourselves overbooked with tasks we later regret.

• This happens because the future feels calmer and easier than it will be, so we treat future time as easy to spend.

• To avoid overcommitting, we can use a simple check: if this was happening tomorrow, would I still say yes?

Little updates 🥕

• EEF guidance on inclusive teaching → discusses adaptive approaches, common misconceptions & the importance of strong universal practices.

• Review of emotional-intelligence training → suggests programmes may improve teachers’ emotional skills, though evidence quality limits confidence.

• Paper on digital learning experiences → finds pen pressure can indicate task difficulty, while facial expressions reveal emotional responses to feedback.

• Meta-analysis of AI-literacy interventions → finds programmes produce large gains, especially in AI knowledge, though effects vary by region.

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